Another Dalton Minimum (sunspot minimum) predicted!

Another Dalton (sunspot) Minimum predicted! 7 Feb 09 – A research paper published this week in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics forecasts another Dalton Minimum.

Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo, say authors. We base our findings on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. These findings enable us to forecast solar activity.

“We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax = 68 ± 17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate to low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60 – 100 years).”

As you already know, unless you’re new to this webpage, I think this sunspot minimum could kick us into the next ice age.

I think these sunspot minimums are linked to the Solar Retrograde Cycle, which I discuss in “Not by Fire but by Ice.”

The article, entitled: “Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond,” by C. de Jager and S. Duhau, was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 71 (2009), 239 – 245.
Thanks to Mike McEvoy and Marc Morano for this link


1 thought on “Another Dalton Minimum (sunspot minimum) predicted!”

  1. Judging by the talk on the net the Cycle 24 was going to be a mammoth but there’s certainly no signs of that from what I can see. I think NASA said 24 was going to be a biggy as well, in terms of activity/sunspots. It’s mean’t to peak in 2013 according to NASA.

    I don’t know what the signs are for a continuing trend of low solar activity but from what I can see i.e. the transition from years of really high sunspot activity to virtually none is quite worrying.

    I don’t know if the sunspots can miss a year and recover lets hope so.


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